During rainy season, Pakistan is likely to have less rain than usual and warmer weather than usual.
ISLAMABAD: The South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF) says that rain will be “below normal” in Pakistan from June to September 2023, which is the next monsoon season.
In a release, the SASCOF said that minimum and maximum temperatures in South Asia, including Pakistan, are expected to stay “above normal,” except for parts of the foothills of the Himalayas.
“The temperatures in the Pacific and Indian oceans are not good for a strong monsoon season in South Asia, especially in Pakistan. Between June and September 2023, Pakistan’s southern region, which includes Sindh and Balochistan, is likely to get less rain than usual, said Dr. Sardar Sarfraz, the Pakistan Meteorological Department’s (PMD) chief meteorological officer (CMO) in Sindh, who represented Pakistan at the 25th session of SASCOF.
Meteorologists and hydrologists from Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Maldives, and Myanmar, as well as the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), attended the 25th session of SASCOF-25 from April 27 to April 29. They came to an agreement on the monsoon season in the region from June to September 2023 and issued a consensus statement.
Dr. Sarfraz said that this year’s normal or above-normal monsoon rains were not helped by the weather conditions in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. He also said that Pakistan’s weather in March and April was not ideal because it was warmer than usual.
He also said that some parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) were likely to get a little more rain than usual during the monsoon season, while Gilgit Baltistan and Punjab were likely to get about the same amount of rain.
“Unlike last year, when it was predicted that southern Pakistan would get 60% more rain than normal, we are not expecting such heavy rains in Sindh and Balochistan. This means that there are very few chances of monsoon floods happening again in this area,” Dr. Sarfraz said.
He said that Pakistan was in the middle of a westerly wave, which kept most of the country’s temperatures low. He also said that another westerly wave in the last week of May could bring more rain and make many parts of the country cooler.
During the rainy season, from June to September 2023, most of Pakistan will have temperatures that are above average, according to the weatherman.
“Because there will be less cloud cover in the country during the monsoon season, the lowest temperatures will stay above normal, with a few exceptions, in the plains and even in some hilly areas,” he said.
Dr. Sarfraz quoted the statement and said that the outlook for minimum temperatures from June to September 2023 shows that most of South Asia, except for parts of the foothills of the Himalayas, will have above-normal minimum temperatures during that time.
Most of the region, except for the centre and parts of the south of South Asia, is expected to have seasonal high temperatures that are above average from June to September 2023, he said, based on what everyone thinks will happen.
The official also said that rainfall and temperature tend to change a lot during the southwest monsoon season, so it is best to keep an eye on both long-term forecasts and new seasonal forecasts to make better decisions.