Erdogan hopes to stay in power for a third decade in a historic runoff

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the president of Turkey, is the clear favorite to keep his Islamic-based rule for another 10 years, until 2028, in a historic special election next Sunday.

In the elections for parliament and president on May 14, secular leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu did the best for the opposition during the time when Erdogan was in charge.

The retired bureaucrat with Kurdish Alevi roots won almost 45 percent of the vote. He did this by breaking down racial barriers and Erdogan’s control over the media and state institutions.

But Erdogan was still only a few hundredths of a point away from getting more than the 50% needed to win in the first round.

Even though Turkey was going through its worst economic crisis since the 1990s and polls showed he was going to lose his first national election, the 69-year-old leader did it.

Kilicdaroglu will have to rally his demoralized troops and beat the chances again if he wants the secular party that ran Turkey for most of the 20th century to get back in charge.

The Eurasia Group think tank said that Erdogan has an 80% chance of winning on Sunday.

Hamish Kinnear of the consulting company Verisk Maplecroft agreed that Kilicdaroglu would have to work hard to win in the second round.

Millions of loyal people
Erdogan rode a wave of nationalism, which helped smaller right-wing parties get almost 25% of the vote in a rival parliamentary election.

Kilicdaroglu is trying to get these people to vote for him in the second round of the election. For the most important week of his political career, the 74-year-old changed up his campaign team and threw away his old plan.

He used to record chatty videos from his kitchen, but now he gives big speeches and promises to get millions of refugees out of Turkey right away.

In his first speech after being elected, he said, “As soon as I am in charge, I will send all the refugees home.”

He has tried to get the support of a little-known ultra-nationalist, whose small number of votes forced Turkey to have its first presidential rematch.

And he has fought back against Erdogan’s claims that he was working with “terrorists,” which is a code word for Kurdish groups fighting for more freedom in Turkey’s southeast.

Kilicdaroglu said, “We need to get in touch with millions of patriots.”

But Kilicdaroglu’s sharp turn to the right could hurt him with the Kurdish people who voted for him in the first round.

During Erdogan’s first ten years in power, Kurds liked him because he tried to get rid of many of their social rules.

They turned against him when Erdogan made an alliance with Turkey’s nationalist forces and started purges after a coup attempt in 2016 that failed.

Kilicdaroglu’s new, more openly nationalist tone brings to mind a secular time when basic rights were taken away from Kurds, who make up almost a fifth of Turkey’s population.

Serious problems with money
The market has been in chaos since it became clear that Erdogan was going to stay in power, which is happening at the same time as the political fights.

In the last few years, Turkey’s economy has been in a lot of trouble, which has made it hard to keep many of the wins made during Erdogan’s first few years in power.

Most of the problems are caused by Erdogan’s fierce fight against interest rates. Some experts say that this is because he follows Islamic rules that say usury is wrong.

He told CNN this week, “My theory is that interest rates and inflation are linked in a good way.”

“The lower interest rates, the lower inflation will be.” The ruble is under a lot of pressure because the markets are putting their faith in more traditional economics.

In the week before the first-round vote, government figures showed that Turkey’s foreign currency reserves, which were built up with help from Arab allies, dropped by $9 billion and hit their lowest level in 21 years.

Analysts think that most of the money was used to try to keep the ruble from falling in a way that would be politically dangerous.

“There is now a very real risk that an Erdogan victory could lead to macroeconomic instability in Turkey, including the threat of a severe currency crisis,” Capital Economic said.

Putin has a special relationship with
But Erdogan has been sure of himself since the first election.

He has laughed at his opponent’s attempts to be more nationalist, and he has stuck to some of his more unpopular policies, such as getting closer to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Turkey’s huge energy bill has been cut by billions of dollars because Erdogan turned to Russia.

Erdogan told CNN, “Russia and Turkey need each other in every possible way.”

He also said that his more “balanced” approach to Putin helped him reach a deal with Russia that was backed by the UN and let Ukraine start selling grain again.

Erdogan said, “This was possible because of how close we are to President Putin.”

He also laughed at US Vice President Joe Biden’s comments from 2019 that called Erdogan a “autocrat.” These comments were brought up by Erdogan’s supporters during the campaign.

“Would a dictator ever run in a second round of voting?” Erdogan asked