World rice supplies are plentiful, reducing the impact of Pakistan and China’s crop losses.

Any price increases from stable Asian demand may be limited by ample rice supply in major exporters, which might substantially offset an anticipated decline in production due to crop damage from floods in Pakistan and a severe heatwave in China.

While extremely high temperatures in parts of China at the end of August have had an impact on rice production in the world’s biggest importer of the staple, Pakistan, the fourth-largest exporter of rice, has suffered extensive damage to agriculture, including rice, as floods ravaged large swathes of its farmland.

However, the world’s rice supplies are currently enough, and the forecast for the Indian crop is improving, which should allay supply fears and restrain price hikes brought on by the recent surge in Bangladeshi demand, according to a trader at one of the leading rice trading firms in Singapore.

According to traders, Pakistan is expected to have lost 10% of its projected 8.7 million tonnes of rice production by 2022, and China has also experienced crop losses, but it is unclear how much.

As severe rains destroy crops and disrupt supply, food prices have skyrocketed in markets across Pakistan. This is an early indication that the worst floods in decades are causing food shortages at a time of economic turmoil.

According to Peter Clubb, a market analyst for the International Grains Council, Pakistan has recently produced a lot of rice. “While any significant production loss is undoubtedly undesirable, the increase in production over recent seasons allows for some wiggle room.”

The production of rice in the eastern provinces of Jiangsu and Anhui has been negatively impacted by drought and high temperatures, according to China’s Minister of Agriculture Tang Renjian.

It is still too early to determine just how dismal yields (in China) may be, according to Clubb. “In general, China still has quite large stockpiles.”