When Iran and Saudi Arabia talked, what went well this time?

The world is seeing a huge change in the way Iran and Saudi Arabia talk to each other. Who would have thought that in three years, King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud would be invited to Tehran and that President Ebrahim Raisi would graciously accept an offer from Riyadh to do the same?

GEO News tells the world for the first time who was responsible for getting the two biggest enemies together to work for peace and help stabilise the area.

Imran Khan, who used to be Prime Minister, says that when he went to Tehran and Riyadh right after each other, he laid the groundwork for peace. In fact, part of what he says is true.

In October 2019, he went to both countries on his own to try to find a solution, and the Iranian president agreed to work with him.

But a top diplomat, who cannot be named because he is not officially allowed to talk about the problem, said that Saudi Arabia was not ready to accept that mediation.

The situation was so bad that two years before Imran Khan’s trip to both cities, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) flatly said that he would not talk to Iran directly. MBS gave a good reason, which was likely a nod to Ayatollah Khomeini’s Islamic revolution in 1979.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman gives a speech from his office on October 23, 2021, at the opening event for the Saudi Green Initiative forum in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. — Reuters/File
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman gives a speech from his office on October 23, 2021, at the opening event for the Saudi Green Initiative forum in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. — Reuters/File
In an interview with MBC news, MBS said, “How do you talk to a regime that is based on an extremist idea that they must control the land of Muslims and spread their sect in the Muslim world?”

The interview aired as a Saudi-led alliance was bombing Yemen and rockets were being fired at random into southern Saudi Arabia. Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad, who was already in trouble, was able to stop an uprising with the help of Iran and Russia.

The visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to Saudi Arabia also made it hard for Imran Khan’s plan to come to fruition. It looks like President Putin was trying to take advantage of the situation caused by the brutal killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. After all, US intelligence was pointing the finger at MBS for that murder at the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul.

Putin made sure that Russia would have a bigger part in the Middle East by going on that trip. Still, neither Tehran nor Riyadh was ready for the Kremlin to step in and help. The situation started to change drastically the very next year.

On the condition of anonymity, another diplomat said that after he became Sultan of Oman in 2020, Haitham bin Tariq took it upon himself to arbitrate between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

After being sworn in, Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said gives a speech to the royal family council on January 11, 2020, in Muscat, Oman. — Reuters/File
After being sworn in, Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said gives a speech to the royal family council on January 11, 2020, in Muscat, Oman. — Reuters/File
Sultan Haitham is the cousin of the late Sultan Qaboos bin Said, who was known for being wise and neutral in a troubled area. People say that the previous sultan helped bring an end to the nine-year war between Iraq and Iran in 1989. The JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) or the Iran nuclear deal was also made while he was in charge.

Two years ago, a secret meeting between Iran and Saudi Arabia began with the help of his able replacement, Sultan Haitham.

Then, experts talked about “security and intelligence issues” in Iraq, and these talks kept going on for years. Things “moved as slowly as a snail.” The bad past turned out to be the main thing that made it hard to break the ice. Still, both sides are still determined to find an answer.

When these two-year-long talks were over, the second part, which was about diplomatic matters, could begin. So, the foreign ministers of both countries sat down at a table and talked. “Once diplomats took over, things moved more quickly,” says the source. Both sides decided to “bury the past” and look forward.

At one point, Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi went to Saudi Arabia and Iran right after each other to make sure the deal was done.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi talks at a news conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel (not shown) on October 20, 2020, in Berlin, Germany, at the Chancellery. — Reuters/File
Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi talks at a news conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel (not shown) on October 20, 2020, in Berlin, Germany, at the Chancellery. — Reuters/File
Everything was ready, but the launch pad needed to be bigger and stronger. China came into this third phase with a bigger political umbrella. After all, Muscat depends on Beijing for its economy, and Beijing has close links with Baghdad, Tehran, and Riyadh as well.

Xi Jinping went to Riyadh to use this as a bargaining chip. Soon after that trip, a top Chinese official went to Tehran to deliver a word from Saudi Arabia. As a result of these two trips to Saudi Arabia and Iran by Chinese officials, the Chinese government got active in making peace.

This happened at the same time as President Ebrahim Raisi’s trip to Beijing. Even though the summit was meant for bilateral talks, regional problems, such as getting along, were added to the agenda.

This is how Oman-led, Iraq-led, and China-led talks got to the point where they were almost over.

So, on April 6, the world watched as Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud and Hossein Amirabdollahian shook hands in front of their Chinese colleague, Qin Gang. This was a diplomatic miracle. Oman, a key mediator, and Iraq, a top broker, quietly left the picture.

The question is what made this time’s dialogue work? And what made MBS want to start talking to a “regime built on an extremist ideology” again?

“MBS is a smart politician who knows how to get things done,” says one source.

On February 14, 2023, in Beijing, China, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping as part of a welcome event.— Reuters/File
On February 14, 2023, in Beijing, China, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping as part of a welcome event.— Reuters/File
But how long will this reconciliation last, since relations between Riyadh and Tehran have been up and down in the past?

In 1997, Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah went to the OIC Summit in Tehran. This was the first time a prominent Saudi leader had done something like this since the Iranian Revolution. The reforming president Khatami at the time returned the favour by going to Riyadh.

But a lot has changed in the last 10 years. Not too long ago, a group of angry people attacked a Saudi diplomatic station in Tehran because Saudi Arabia had just killed a cleric, Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, who had openly backed protests against the government.

Saudi Arabia had also said that Iran had given weapons to the Yemeni Houthis, who had said they were behind the attacks on oil processing plants in Riyadh and Saudi Aramco. People were also suspicious of the protests against Bahrain’s rulers.

Iran, on the other hand, had its own problems. Tehran said it was unfair that the bodies of 464 of its own people who died in a stampede during the Hajj journey could not be found right away. It also said that one of its people was taken into custody after Hajj.

Earlier, 275 Iranian visitors were killed in fights during Hajj. In response, the Saudi embassy in Tehran was burned down. The two countries didn’t talk to each other for four years after that violent event.

Considering this troubled past, it’s easy to see how fragile this peace process is and how careful both countries need to be to stay on the international track.

“That’s exactly why Beijing stepped in,” the source said. “By doing this, China is also trying to move from being an economic superpower to a diplomatic one.”